rev.org: Ministry in 2018: 12 Trends Affecting You Now

Good pastors are nearsighted, seeing things in and around their local communities that help their congregations meet the needs of the people in their immediate areas. But great pastors are those who can both keep their eyes on the road ahead of them as well as peruse any oncoming traffic or potential hazards on the horizon.

Everyone agrees that times are changing, which means ministry today requires savvy thinking. Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky said that the secret of his success was that while other players skated to where the puck was, he skated to where the puck was going to be. Figuring out where the ministerial puck is going is no easy task, but Rev! assembled a group of individuals to give you some insights as to national culture and religious trends that will undoubtedly affect your church, if you plan to be in local church ministry the next 10 years.

A few years ago I participated in a Leadership Network event, where I was asked to facilitate a discussion on church leadership development in the future. George Barna was in the group. During the conversation, various people chimed in with their thoughts, but George never made a sound. His silence was disconcerting to me. I felt a bit intimidated by the renowned research guru, thinking he was wondering who this "yahoo" was leading the group or where in the world I was going. So I asked, "George, where do you think we'll be in 10 years?"

He said, "I don't know."

I thought, "What kind of futurist is he?"

Barna explained, "The way things are changing these days, the best we can estimate is about five years out."

So although times are changing rapidly and we have no way of really knowing what the ministry horizon has in store for us, we thought we'd gather some forecasters to help us get a better feel of the trends and where they may be leading us. John Cionca, professor of leadership transformation at Bethel Seminary, Todd Rhoades, founder of ChurchStaffing.com and now with Leadership Network, and Brian Mavis, founder of SermonCentral.com and now with LifeBridge Christian Church and the Externally Focused Church Network, sat down with me over lunch. We talked shop like frat brothers. The topic: How will church be different 10 years from now? Then we collated our list of a dozen predictions and shopped them around to a few others for their input and pushback.

Delving into the future may not seem very pragmatic, but it is important to know what's happening and where we're headed, in order to be good stewards of our resources. Investing in cassettes on the verge of going digital wouldn't be wise. Likewise, creating ministries, buildings, and staffing toward diminishing trends is not a good use of our resources. Although some may see the dark clouds in a few of these ideas, with every loss comes a potential gain. From the compost pile can grow the largest fruit, if we plant well. This is the hope and spirit of those who participated in this conversation.

Fewer Brick-and-Mortar Mega-Campuses (But Not Mega-Ministries)

As Baby Boomers retire in droves, who will pay to build and maintain these giant campuses? Subsequent generations aren't that interested and as technology improves, multi-site churches will make more sense. Some large ministries have already begun reducing the sizes of their blueprints in order to capitalize on more, smaller venues. You won't find a 200-seat Starbucks, in spite of its popularity. But you will find intersections with three or four stores. While many churches will become multi-site, half a dozen networks will likely emerge as national "brands," each with dozens and perhaps hundreds of outlets. This may increase the challenge for less effective preachers, as more people experience great communicators. Mega-ministries, those over 2,000, will likely continue to increase in one way or another.

"E" and Free Publications and Resources: Just-in-time delivery systems that allow customization, made possible by the Internet and improving graphic software, will make print books and curriculum less inviting. Plus, the "open source" philosophy (such as Wikipedia, Craig's List, LifeChurch.tv), whereby people share resources freely or inexpensively, will create fierce competition with traditional resource providers. Amazon is scanning content from hundreds of thousands of books, allowing search engines to create just in time info. iTunes allows people to purchase individual songs, so you don't have to buy a compact disc of 15 in order to get two or three that you like, rendering the CD as old school.

Diminishing Christian Orientation

As America evolves in the direction of Western Europe, traditional church attendance will continue to decline. Some suggest that only a small percentage of the Bridger Generation (post-Millennials) will become Christians. Still, spiritual interest will remain strong, thus creating an appetite for other religions as well as nonchurch Christian venues that are more relational, experiential, informal, authentic, applicable, and process-oriented. This could catalyze a "re-Reformation," forcing us to major on the majors, doctrinally and in practice. The influx of immigrants and ethnic religions will continue to dilute America's Christian culture, as will the Internet's access to divergent thinking and belief promotion.

Simplification and Focus of Mission

The "big box" church movement afforded a buffet of need-filling ministries, pressuring lesser-sized flocks to mimic the offering or feel left behind. The organic/simple church impetus will encourage congregations to discern the one thing they're good at that fills needs in their community, creating niche and boutique churches that don't try to be all things to all people and thus embrace their unique God-print. Discovering our ministry signature will become an important impetus. This is a healthy move, toward discovering each congregation's strengths and leveraging these instead of trying to compete with others. This in turn should create more bonding between churches as they realize they're on the same team.

Hospice Care for Denominations

While they won't disappear, the influence that denominations (and other associations of congregations) once held will be a wisp of what they once were. As finances decrease and international growth elevates non-American political power, denominational structures will pine down, consolidate, and be forced to function quite differently than in the past. While some will continue to atrophy due to theological pluralism and subsequent defection, even more cohesive doctrinal groups will downsize considerably. Churches over 1,000 in attendance function much as their own denomination already, and the lack of central support for local work will make others rethink their loyalty to denominational headquarters. This lack of strength will further diminish the ability to attract the most talented to denominational roles, which will be seen as weak and anemic destinations.

Discipleship and Outreach Through Service

The classroom approach to Bible learning will lessen as people move toward a more incarnational methodology, putting feet to their faith. Mission trips, work projects, and using gifts and talents outside the walls of the church will be the growing, if not primary place, for spiritual formation. Connecting scriptures with these experiences will increase as evangelicals discover service without losing the good news. The Externally Focused Network will expand significantly as evangelicals discover social service without feeling the need to compromise on their message. Bono and others are causing us to realize that faith without the fruit is dead. Evangelism strategies based on canned, apologetic, and intellectual processes will go the way of the 8-track and VHS unless first accompanied by authentic demonstrations of love, service, and humility.

A related but slightly different trend is a continued move toward team ministry and unleashing the church. Pastors will move toward equipping (Ephesians 4), requiring many to learn new skills and become less codependent on being the primary ministry source. They'll need to become coaches instead of "tellers" and developers instead of doers. For churches to become externally focused, pastors and staff will need to focus on individual gifting, engage people with leadership abilities, and take more of a back seat in terms of parish ministry (Exodus 18). Talent will be replaced with team-building skills as a staff hiring priority.

Morphing of House Churches

The house church movement will increase as people seek simplicity in a growingly complex society; the community, convenience, and family orientation of the house church will also appeal. But many house churches will not be sustainable without networking and interdependence. Plus, large churches seeking to take advantage of this opportunity will likely provide support, staffing, and accountability for their own network of house churches. The "organic church" concept may be more powerful as well, since many of these groups will not be defined by residential buildings, preferring parks, coffee shops, cafes, businesses, and Internet chat rooms for their communing. The return of the front porch, neighborhood feel will continue to impact how we "do" our faith together.

Growing Ethnic Diversity

Just as ethnic groups hit the 100 million mark, with 10 percent of U.S. counties having ethnic majorities in 2007 (Source: "More Than 300 Counties Now 'Majority-Minority,'" U.S. Census Bureau News, August 9, 2007, by Robert Bernstein), a growing diversity in America will mean more diverse worship styles and belief systems, and a dilution of the American version of Christianity. Anglo congregations seeking to extend their influence into different subcultures will need to learn new ways of doing this in effective ways. The ethnocentricity of many white congregations will either accentuate an "us versus them" mind-set or require new ways to share diverse cultural values and understand Christianity in a much different light. While multi-ethnic congregations will increase, they will still be a very small percentage of churches.

Decentralized Training

Our schedules are not apt to decrease in speed, making ministry training more difficult as people will have less time to gather in a single place and time. On-demand training will be much more the norm via the Internet and other electronic modes, allowing 24/7 availability. The good news is the technology will continue to provide faster and better means to receive training. The long-term impact on formal education has yet to be seen. Traditional Christian higher education and seminaries will likely experience a survival of the fittest environment, forcing many to close their doors for lack of funding, allowing others to grow because of fewer choices. New "academies" of ministry preparation will emerge as a diminishing percent go the route of the traditional M.Div. degree.

Mergers and Release of Physical Assets

As more churches approach closure, there will be systems and protocol developed for transferring property, facilities, and assets to other churches that are vibrant and healthy, as well as to charitable organizations. Hopefully this will happen, because thousands of churches will be dying on the vine in the next decade and if they fritter away their assets, trying to stay alive, it will be a huge stewardship fiasco. A huge number of existing-but-slowly-dying congregations will be approaching others, seeking to join or become an offshoot of their organizations.

Family Ministry Emphasis

While the '60s and '70s saw the rise of youth ministry, and '80s and '90s experienced the same with children, post-2000 trends are watching the pendulum move back. By separating age groups on Sundays and throughout the week, many fear that we've undermined the parent's responsibility for spiritual nurturing. There is a felt need to pursue family unity and intergenerational worship and spiritual formation. Family Pastor is currently the fastest growing new ministry title and this will continue into the next decade, as churches strive to equip and empower parents to assume their responsibility. This will marginalize "old school" pastoral staff who refuse to morph, because they've assumed a ministry model that tends to function in silos and provides end-user resources.

The Spiritual Tipping Point Away From America

Although this look is at church trends in America, we cannot help but note that by 2018 there is apt to be a new way of thinking about Christianity worldwide. Because revival is happening in a number of foreign nations, the fastest growing churches will continue to be outside of North America. While economics of the church in America will continue to make it formidable, the spiritual epicenter will move away from the U.S., to the Southern Hemisphere. We will no longer be assumed to be the leader in sending missionaries, modeling leadership, and knowing how to "do" church. This humbling effect will likely open us up to learning new ways of how to think about and do ministry.

While these trends are all very likely to continue in the next decade, their impact will vary from church to church, depending on where a church is located, how its leaders see and respond to these social movements, and whatever else might interrupt our "previously scheduled programs." No doubt, the church in 2018 will look quite different than it does today, and those wired to navigate the whitewaters of change will emerge the most effective.

Subsequent to developing this list, I immersed myself in reviewing over 500 pages of research summaries from dozens of studies from the last five years. While the bulk of these trends are subjective, none of the research seemed contradictory; in fact much of it substantiated what we are sensing. Suggested church research websites include:

In the next issue of Rev!, David T. Olson will provide a state-of-the-church article based on data collected from nearly 200,000 churches in America.

ALAN NELSON is the author of Me to We (Group) and the executive editor of Rev! Magazine.

FOUR PRACTICAL WAYS TO USE THIS INFORMATION

1. Take this article on your next staff or board retreat and discuss these 12 trends, asking your church leaders what these may mean for your local church. Each congregation is different, meaning that some will be impacted more by some of these trends than others.

2. Take an inventory of your congregation as it exists now -- budget, calendar, and staffing -- and think hard about the next year or two of planning, so that you can create on-ramps to certain items that make sense for your church to pursue. What opportunities can you seize before they are gone?

3. One of the main reasons that certain churches grow is that they get a head start on a community's growth or a preferred worship style or ministry offering. Which of these items could your church embrace and for leadership in your local area? Develop a 36-month plan to change what you're doing in order to be on the front edge of the growing trend.

4. In your next gathering with other pastors, discuss your own sense of local trends and how you might change what you're doing or how you're doing it. There's nothing magical about these dozen ideas, but hopefully they'll catalyze some of your own thinking about why you're doing what you're doing; you might even determine your own mini-list of local trends (such as demographics, population growth or reduction, and local economy).

Responses to "Ministry in 2018" from Alan Hirsch, Dan Kimball, David Kinnaman, Kevin Ford, Sally Morgenthaler, Thom Rainer, Thom Schultz.

Alan Hirsch, author of The Forgotten Ways and The Shaping of Things to Come and founding director of Forge Mission Training Network:

I think this is a very astute look into the future for the church. It's hard to argue with any of them. I will simply add to them with the following points.

I believe that the 21st Century will see the rise of what I call "missional" (or apostolic) movements. In fact it is hard to see us surviving at all without the rediscovery of this form of ecclesia. The increasing complexities of this century, combined with its associated challenges (like discontinuous change, geo-political shifts, environmental crises, etc.) will necessitate a more fluid and adaptable movemental form of church. In addition, we need the vigor of missional movements if we wish to retake the lost ground in the Western context. We are already seeing a rise in the interest of multiplication church planting which lends itself to the idea of movement.

As we face the need for more innovative and pioneering forms of church, we'll see a broadening of its understanding of ministry and leadership. This will lead to a recovery of the ministry described in Ephesians 4 (five-fold ministry), particularly the currently de-legitimized, apostolic, and prophetic roles.

Environmental concerns: While it's true that the trends indicate a rise in "mega" ministries, these will flourish only insofar that the economy can support it. We now face a real possibility of economic collapse within 15 to 20 years due to an increasingly unstable climate. Witness the destruction as well as the cost of Hurricane Katrina. Massive systematic climate change will impact our economies in a fundamental way. When one adds to this the diminishing oil supply and the fact that most people that attend these churches have to travel long distances to attend church, there is a real problem inherent in the model itself. Megachurches and megaministries assume a certain economic model to sustain growth and health.

Dan Kimball, author of several books, including,The Emerging Church and Emerging Worship, and pastor of Vintage Faith Church, Santa Cruz, California:

I agree with George Barna that it's so incredibly difficult to predict beyond a few years, because of the rapid acceleration of change that's happening. But despite that, there are some things I personally can ponder about what may be happening in 2018. I disagree that there will be a movement away from the megachurch, but it will be a different type of megachurch in 2018. I serve with younger people and many from non-churched backgrounds. I never hear that they don't like large meetings or large churches. It depends on what culture the larger church has. I believe that the megachurch will only get stronger and thrive more -- but for those that do last longer into 2018 -- it will mean that it moves away from "small groups" and truly into developing "home churches" that are part of a larger whole. Home churches on their own won't thrive in our culture as they do in China. There may be some drastic changes in our country by 2018 that may shake us up and change that, but if things continue as they are, then I think the megachurch will only be stronger in the future provided they become more focused on developing leaders and house churches within it. Our ecclesiology may look radically different, but the larger church will be a major part of the future of the church.

There are concerts that attract thousands to them and Burning Man and other festivals, which are very large. I don't see emerging generations rejecting larger churches. The future church must break down into smaller communities, beyond just an artificial small group experience. Larger churches must create home communities that function like home churches, but stay connected to the larger whole.

I have optimism that the new emerging leaders are sensing that we are living in a post-Christian culture in the USA. While the center of Christianity shifts away from the USA, it means we are more and more forced to see ourselves as missionaries here in our own country. Because the gospel changes lives, more people will hear and experience the gospel, so my optimism is high. If churches understand that we should be living and striving to part of the Missio Dei instead of primarily focusing on inward Christian weird subculture things, and be training people to be missionaries, there is great hope.

David Kinnaman, president, The Barna Group, and frequent contributor to Rev! Magazine:

George Barna is correct that culture re-imagines itself every half decade, making long-term predictions difficult. Yet that complexity will only increase. In fact, large-scale macro-trends will be more elusive as culture fragments into smaller groups and customized experiences. Trends will be blurred by counter-trends; information of various qualities will come from even more diverse viewpoints and the needs of ever-shrinking niches will find willing providers.

You should also anticipate the growing impact of culture and media. People's attention and values formation continues to shift toward media, technology, and entertainment. Effective ministries will equip people to handle media-drenched lives as well as support Christians doing culture-shaping work.

A related shift is the expansion and influence of user-generated content and creativity. Technology and the Internet are redefining the self-expressions, identities, relationships and capabilities of young Americans. This evolving social space will provide unprecedented opportunities for young people to create, influence, and minister – and that's just the good side of things.

Finally, expect to find increasing antagonism toward Christianity, making "love your enemies" a real non-negotiable. Churches will have a harder time attracting true "outsiders," preferring to pick low-hanging fruit (de-churched adults). Missional engagement among groups like homosexuals and in urban centers will increase, as leaders take the gospel to skeptical and mistrusting "tribes."

Kevin Ford, chief visionary officer and managing partner of TAG (The Armstrong Group), and author of Transforming Church: Bringing Out the Good to Get to Great (Tyndale):

The most significant cultural shift that has started is the shift from the media-hit culture to the digital-niche culture. In the media-driven 20th Century, our culture was obsessed with hits: Summer blockbusters, Nielsen ratings, bestselling books, and superstar pastors. The emerging niche culture, from YouTube to ECAST, is changing the way that content is produced and distributed. The costs of production and distribution have lowered so significantly that the average person can both create and deliver content, even if only a handful of other people care about it. But these forms of interaction are not just related to music and books. They are changing the way Americans think, act, and connect with others. The implications for the church are enormous. Churches will begin opening up their systems to allow the average member to develop and deliver content, rather than leaving it up to the pastors. The pastors and formal leaders will from being the vision setters to being vision facilitators. The locus of ministry will shift from one place-one time to many places and many times. As the boundaries of time and space become less important, they will need to be replaced my more intuitive bonds such as shared values, mission, and strategies. Time together, in a virtual world, will need to be much more intentional to keep relationships strong.

Sally Morgenthaler, author of several books on worship, frequent contributor to Rev! Magazine, and emerging church-in-culture leader/thinker:

Rapid Decline in Church Attendance.
For some, the biggest news for the U.S. church is that church attendance is declining much more rapidly than we anticipated (see www.theamericanchurch.org). At current rates of decline, it is estimated that only 15 percent of Americans will actually be "going" to church in 2018. But does attendance in a building truly give us an idea of what is happening to the church in the U.S.? Even now, the church that many U.S. Christians experience on an ongoing basis has nothing to do with a building. Whatever we anticipate about the U.S. church in year 2018, will need to look at more than bricks and mortar.

What is the Gospel? The biggest news about the church just may be that the gospel…the essential nature and message of Jesus…is back up for grabs. Mainlines have wrestled profoundly with this question for years. But now evangelicals are being called to grapple with what they have long considered a "done deal." By early 2009, "Who is Jesus and what does what does it mean to be a Jesus follower?" will be one of the hottest question in evangelical ministry blogs. And how church leaders and participants answer that question will have a profound affect on what forms their ministries take for years to come.

The Gospel as Personalized Faith.
If the gospel…the essential nature and message of Jesus... is about nurturing a personal faith relationship and being affirmed in one's eternal destiny, then a church in 2018 will most likely be some kind of extension of the established church in 2008: a place where individual needs for personal growth and spiritual security are met on a weekly basis. Large churches (over 1,000) will still be a mainstay for this crowd, but as they struggle for sustainability in a shrinking market, many will have cut services and staff to basic levels.

A subset of the personalized-faith sector, multi-site congregations will crescendo in the next three to five years, appealing to the need for smaller gatherings. As culture pushes the envelope on interactive, those multi-sites that integrate more local and participative elements will become more popular and, to preserve their local flavor, will eventually spin off as totally separate congregations. The personalized-faith sector will also see permutations of what are now conservative home churches, discussion groups and Bible studies, import groups such as Alpha, as well as small, outreach groups that use neighborhood service-projects as a magnet. Certain kinds of destination-based, cosmetically "emerging" expressions are also part of this group. The more established of these will still be around in 2018 and may help lead a hybrid movement, combining the personalized-faith sector with the sector described below.

The Gospel as God's Kingdom Come.
Where the personalized-faith sector sees the gospel -- the essential nature and message of Jesus -- as good news about personal growth, happiness, and eternal security, a small but extremely vocal group on the margins of evangelicalism sees the gospel much differently. To them, the essential nature and message of Jesus is about God's kingdom in the here and now; God's will being done -- by them -- on earth as it is in heaven.

Extend this divergent view out to 2018, and the form of church connected to it may be much more akin to a Habitat for Humanity work-team than an auditorium. In fact, these congregations may not be identified with a "place" at all, but with grassroots webs of relationships. A sprinkling of these kinds of adaptive, incarnational communities of faith and action already exist around the country. Their numbers will increase greatly in the next five years, and they will become as diverse as the communities they serve. Most will feature both real and virtual community expressions: face-to-face interaction in coffee shops, restaurants, bars, and service projects, as well as highly sophisticated learning and interactive communities online. A few of these turn-on-a-dime communities are already experimenting with "unlikely" partnerships: shouldering with non-faith based initiatives that focus on environmental initiatives, hunger, poverty, and disease, as well as creative ventures with artistic and media groups. With a DNA of holism, these grassroots faith-groups will characteristically work in buffer or "gray" zones, rejecting many of the dualistic practices of early millennial conservatism:

world vs. heaven
sacred vs. secular
material vs. spiritual
science vs. faith
morality vs. compassion
good vs. evil
chosen vs. damned
leaders vs. followers
inside vs. outside
power vs. powerless
us vs. them.

Their emphasis on embodying Christ will continue to fuel a fascination with more mystical, ritualized forms of Christianity. This fascination, along with a vigor for social justice, could fuel "a vanguard convergence" by 2018: alternative mainlines and evangelicals forming experimental congregations.

A Full Range. Until recently, the privatized, individual view of the Gospel has ruled the evangelical world. But in the last few years, that view has been seriously challenged, and momentum is building rapidly for a change. I predict that the current vanguard swing toward activism will have a hot burn for several years, pulling in more leaders and congregations on the fringes. By 2010-2011, we will begin to see more moderate forms emerge -- forms synthesized from these two seemingly opposing views of the gospel -- filling out a broad range of church expressions. It will be Jesus-as-personal-savior mixed with Jesus-as-way-of-life. Just as there has been a recent backlash toward the over-individualization and "commodification" of the gospel, I predict a backlash toward the gospel as Jesus-embodiment, a gospel that, according to its most vocal critics, discards substitutionary atonement and justification theology for spiritual existentialism.

Thom Rainer, chief executive officer of LifeWay Resources, and author of Simple Church

Returning to God's Process for Making Disciples: I am very impressed with this list. The participants should be congratulated for their insights and perspectives. Here are some trends I see which are similar to but slightly different to these twelve.

The United States will be a net mission-receiving nation. The number of Christian missionaries to the U. S. will be greater than the number we send to other nations. The world Christian community recognizes that our nation is one of the largest non-Christian fields in the world.

The increase of neo-denominations. While many denominations today are on hospice care, some affinity groups will replace them. They may be the megachurches with multiple sites or something we cannot even conceive of today.

Increased biblical hunger among young adults. We are already noting this trend today, and we do not see it slowing.

The multi-site boom. I believe that more than a half a dozen churches will emerge as major "brands." The major brands may be over 100, primarily because of our inability to agree on the beliefs and practices of just a few churches.

Increasing hostility toward Christianity in the United States. Look at some of the bestselling books on religion today: God is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything; The God Delusion; The End of Faith; and Letters to a Christian Nation (written by an atheist).

Greater efforts at bridge building among younger evangelicals. Younger Christians are tired of the in-fighting among various Christian groups. While they will not change their doctrinal positions, they will find ways to work together.

Thom Schultz, founder and president of Group Publishing, and author of several books on youth ministry, children's ministry, and leadership:

Don't bank on the scalability of the video/TV-driven "multi-site" church. I don't think the culture will sustain the return of the televangelist.

The low percentage of the Bridger Generation becoming Christians seems unfounded and deeply flawed. (See Rick Lawrence's analysis in Group Magazine.)

Because the church generally seems to run about 20 years behind the rest of the culture, we'll be arriving at about 1998 in 2018. That means the church will start understanding that the population has embraced visual, relational and experiential forms of communication, learning and interaction. The long-held church practice of passive, auditory forms of presentation will begin to wane.