Kevin was the typical playground bully, but during our ride to school, his playground was our bus. He was in junior high, so, fortunately, he got off the bus before us elementary kids. Even though it was a short trip, Kevin did a lot of emotional damage. If you had the bad luck to have him sit down near you, you could count on losing your ball cap, getting a punch in the arm, or having your books knocked to the floor. Try standing up for yourself, and Kevin would intimidate you by readying to fight.
As we talk to hundreds of pastors around the country who interact with thousands more, there's a feeling these days of ministerial bullies eating our lunch. It seems that no matter how much we try to reach people, prepare quality worship services, or help folk prioritize God, most of us sense we're not making as much headway as we like. In this first annual Group's State of the Church issue of Rev!, we want to let you know that you're not alone in your feelings -- but there are reasons for hope.
Here are the trends, challenges, and opportunities.
Megachurches & Competition
The local large church down the street is quietly luring our people with options we can't provide. There -- we've said what so many small- to medium-size-congregation pastors feel. Protestant congregations that already draw at least 2,000 people in a typical weekend had an average five-year growth rate around 50 percent. More than 20 percent of megachurches experienced an increase of 100 percent. With 1,300-plus churches running above 2,000 in weekend attendance and new ones reaching that mark each week, more pastors will feel the pinch of God "blessing" the church down the street with their former parishioners.
Chances are also rising that a mega-sponsored service will be coming your way. In 2008 37 percent of megachurches were running satellite services, and an additional 22 percent were considering them. In an increasingly competitive church market, churches with the bigger, better, and more diversified ministry offerings tend to win. Consider how many "ma and pa" coffee shops Starbucks helped to close. Many pastors refrain from stating the obvious because they don't want to sound territorial or envious, or worse, cause their own parishioners to consider what it is others have that they don't.
While some megachurches derive growth from reaching the unchurched, a significant number of people leave smaller churches for big ones. "We just can't compete with the professional staff and Disneyland-like children's ministry of Crossroads," one pastor lamented. "We've recently lost half a dozen young families to them."
There are two basic responses. (1) We can try to mimic larger churches by offering more ministry options -- unfortunately, this strategy rarely works because we spread ourselves too thin, never reaching critical mass or the level of excellence needed to attract people, or (2) grudgingly acknowledge that we can't compete.
The opportunity for small and mid-size churches is to redefine themselves by discovering their unique niche and then leveraging their strengths. Boutique and specialty churches are the wave of the future. "To thine own self be true" is not only good Shakespeare, it's good theology (1 Corinthians 12). Smart congregations will seek to redefine themselves according to what makes them unique and effective.
Technology & Distractions
As people become more mobile, prefer video to print, and get their info in sound bites and mouse clicks, conventional means of preaching and Bible study are becoming less effective. The "Googling" of America means that people are drawing more and more of their spiritual content from Internet sources, regardless of the quality. The typical church service may be the last place in America where so few have the attention of so many. The ability to preach for 20 to 40 minutes each week to a somewhat static, captive audience flies in the face of what's happening in our culture, where people move to a new Web site when the download requires more than a few seconds.
This problem makes preaching increasingly challenging. Investing 20 to 25 hours a week to turn out a good sermon is yielding fewer results. People may be showing up physically, but emotionally they're checking out faster. The notes they appear to be taking are often next week's to-do lists or random doodling that helps them stay awake as their adrenaline levels drop. In the good ol' days before media saturation, people came to church in part for entertainment and socialization. Now they have a legion of choices. Each generation will have less and less tolerance for mediocre, slow-paced ministry presentations.
The opportunity lies in making use of new communication and connection tools. Many churches are beginning to experiment with podcasts, Web site devotions, virtual church services online, and other electronic means of communication and discipleship. Still, a majority of churches don't have a Web site, let alone a good one that's updated frequently. The survivors in the next decade will be church leaders who intentionally usher their congregations into the 21st century. Do that or figure out how you can die with dignity. Active and experiential learning styles are great means for engaging people and making your messages sticky.
Bono and an Unstable Economy
A growing number of churches, at first elated by the increasing awareness of what's happening in Africa and other places in the Third World, are discovering that it's easier to raise money to dig a well in Rwanda than it is to pay the electric bill at home. The competition of myriad good causes sometimes distracts from local programs and needs. It's a good news, bad news situation. We're thankful for the increasing social consciousness regarding the powerless, poor, and disenfranchised. We're just not sure how to deal with it yet.
Additionally, layoffs, foreclosures, bankruptcies, sliding stock values, high gas prices, an expensive war, and "keeping up with the Joneses" have created a stranglehold on a large number of people. While we don't know yet if the bubble will worsen or how long it will take to come out of the current economic environment, people cut back on giving to church before they reduce their food spending, health insurance, or even cable TV. I recently met a California pastor of a church of 250 that's lost 50 church members who've moved out of the area because of the high cost of living. A week later I was in Indiana, where the pastor of a similar-size congregation lamented the loss of several families due to factory closings in their town. Boomers and subsequent generations are not tithing as preceding generations tithed. They want to see tangible results for where their money is going. That means fewer dollars for local overhead, oversized facilities, and staffing. As the world shrinks because of changes in information, travel, and technology, people are being invited to participate in any number of other-than-church charities.
The opportunity lies in engaging people to think beyond themselves by becoming externally focused. In addition to raising funds for ourselves, we'll need to partner with other heart-tugging programs and ministries that allow us to serve others as we serve ourselves -- or serve ourselves as we serve others. The church can be seen as a screener of legitimate outside opportunities for involvement. It affords a chance to return to our New Testament roots of living simply and giving to each according to need. We'll become far better stewards in terms of using our facilities more effectively and tapping volunteerism instead of hiring staff.
Societal Complexity & Demands
Gay marriages, divorce rates the same inside the church as outside, blended families, duel working parents, abortion on demand, pornography, gambling, and a seemingly endless stream of social influences that erode family values -- all this makes it more and more difficult for pastors and ministry leaders to provide for the emotional and social needs in any given congregation. Good-bye Mayberry RFD. It's Sex in the City, The Simpsons, and MTV. If we didn't think our counseling sessions were bad enough, now we can see them broadcast nationally as reality TV. There's a sense that tensions are growing between pastors and their boards, creating angst, firings, and conflict as governance groups seek improved performance from their hirelings.
The opportunity is to move from "Me to We," changing from a pastor-centric paradigm, where a few serve the many, toward empowering all with gifts to serve one another. This increased ownership reduces consumerism and conflict, resulting in substantial spiritual growth and a greater ability to meet the needs around us. The church can become a family for those seeking a family model.
Biblical Illiteracy & Ignorance:
Fewer people are reading the Bible or bringing their Bibles to church, so they're vulnerable to competing beliefs and often depend on others for their spiritual nourishment. Basic theology, orthodox Christianity, and biblical familiarity are fundamental to faith development. With so many sources of information bombarding us, including blogs, Wikipedia-esque sources, and an infinite selection of television channels and podcasts, our people are apt to weave any number of non-biblical tenets into their belief systems. As global influence rises, divergent religious views and values will increasingly insinuate themselves into the faith of the scripturally ungrounded, who are unable to discern what is and is not truly Christian.
The opportunity in a time when spirituality is increasing lies in discovering new ways of conveying Bible knowledge and motivating people to see the Bible as a valuable, relevant life guide and source for knowing God. Group, the publisher of Rev! Magazine, and Tyndale House Publishers are partnering for a national emphasis on reading the Bible in 2010. Sometimes all it takes is a re-emphasis on the basics. Reading, studying the Bible, and praying are essentials that we need to remind people to do -- and we need to come up with creative ways of making them doable.
Increasing Skepticism and Entrenched Apathy:
Unless you've been hiding under a rock or you're part of the small percentage of growing churches, you know that attracting people to church-related events is getting more and more difficult. The number of studies, reports, books, and testimonies to this effect are growing. Talk about postmodernism grows scarce as we become familiar with the feel of a post-Christian culture. Unfortunately, people seem more jaded about church as it is and less inclined to show interest in worship services and programs, no matter how hip or seeker-sensitive they are. In her new book, Quitting Church, Washington Times editor Julia Duin quotes numerous researchers, studies, and testimonials related to folks fading from the formal faith fabric. She personally admits, "I had always criticized those who had left church. But for the first time in almost 30 years of attending evangelical churches, I was throwing in the towel. And I was surprised to find how little I missed going to church."
Here's the double problem. In spite of a growing malaise among churchgoers, it appears that no one is pulling the fire alarm. While admitting we're not happy with how things are, the typical church shows little motivation for change. John Kotter, organizational change guru and author of A Sense of Urgency, says that 70 percent of change initiatives fail in organizations primarily because of a lack of urgency. One reason is that catalyzing leaders with prophetic voices have fled the church or become marginalized, allowing ministry managers to take over our programs and plans.
The opportunity lies in inviting back those with catalytic leadership gifts that allow them to see what's inhibiting our progress and giving them a voice, even when it means creating discomfort to raise the sense of urgency. God has always provided prophetic voices to induce change, so long as we're willing to let them speak and not stone them into silence.
In spite of the bullies in the 'hood or on the bus, our hope remains that the message of Jesus is more relevant than ever. We walk the precarious tightrope between doomsday cynicism and Pollyanna-like faith. For many of us, it's too late. Our mission is to hold the saints hands and usher them into eternity. The good news is that there's always a remnant, a small group of committed leaders who do not put their faith in any given status quo. There's a growing impatience among a number of leaders that will likely result in some significantly different ways of approaching ministry in the next few years. The church planting movement continues to grow. Those working among Millennials are reporting many hopeful signs. The current state of the church in America is one that should motivate all of us to consider what we can do today -- not tomorrow, next week, next month, or next year -- to dare new things for God and Christ's Bride.
ALAN NELSON is founder of KidLead (kidlead.com) and former executive editor of Rev! Magazine.
Alan Nelson asked Sam Rainer, David T. Olson, Warren Bird, D. Michael Lindsay, David Kinnaman, and Brad Lomenick to each contribute their thoughts on what they see as a pressing issue facing today's church.
Sam S. Rainer: Young Adults & Home Hypocrisy
One of the most pressing challenges facing the church today hits close to home. We've all heard that many people will drop out of the church during their college-age years. What our research revealed is that this perception of hypocrisy in the younger generation doesn't begin with the church in general -- but rather with the home.
We uncovered a strong link between teens assimilating in the church and their relationships with their parents. Teens have seen their parents doing church but saying very little about the faith on which their church stands -- as a result most young dropouts perceive church attendance as empty action. Almost eight out of 10 students who stayed in the church say that their parents or family members gave them direct spiritual guidance. In comparison, only 59 percent of those who dropped out indicated that they'd received this guidance from their family members.
Going to church and liking the church are critically important. But those steps are only part of the equation in assimilating students into the local body of believers. The new spin on hypocrisy is not that young adults have a general dislike of the church. The reality is that these negative perceptions begin within their own families.
Sam S. Rainer is a senior pastor, writer, and the president and CEO of Rainer Research. He's co-author of Essential Church: Reclaiming a Generation of Dropouts.
David T. Olson: Church Attendance Stats
The American Church Research Project has just released the latest church attendance statistics for 2007. The percentage of the population that attends an orthodox Christian church declined by 9 percent in the years 2000 to 2007. The United States' population has grown by over 20 million people during those seven years, while numeric church attendance has remained stagnant. Because churches more than 40 years old (60 percent of U.S. churches) are declining by 2 percent each year and the number of new churches barely exceeds the number of closed churches, the prognosis for the immediate future of the American church appears bleak.
The greatest decline is occurring in churches that are:
- older (more than 40 years old)
- mid-size (100 to 300 in weekly attendance)
- in poorer communities
- populated by older members
- predominantly female
The greatest growth is taking place in:
- new churches (churches started in this decade grew by 14 percent last year)
- the smallest and the largest churches (under 50 and over 1,000 in attendance)
- churches in more affluent communities
- churches in second ring suburbs
- churches with a balanced ratio of male and female attendees
- churches with a younger demographic
Is there hope for the American Church? I believe there is. The church will grow again when Christians, impelled by the powerful gospel of Christ, transmit God's love to their neighbors and communities in both word and deed.
David T. Olson is director of the American Church Research Project (theamericanchurch.org) and director of church planting for the Evangelical Covenant Church.
Warren Bird: Emerging Ministry Angles with Great Potential
1) Church mergers are occurring today in unprecedented ways. The old pattern was for two declining churches in the same denomination to come together as one new church. The new pattern is a restart strategy as a struggling church comes to a healthy church to ask for help. It's usually based on a relationship, many times one that crosses denominations.
2) Intern programs are becoming an important pathway for developing a church's leadership base, both present and future. Recent Leadership Network/Hartford Institute research found that 69 percent of megachurches have such programs. They go by different names, including unique labels such as "protégé" and generic labels like "residency" or "apprentice program." At a recent Leadership Network forum on the topic, 20 percent of the participating churches had created variations of their intern programs for children's and youth ministries.
3) Internet campus is an idea that's increasingly being seen as a valid ministry. If your church puts its weekly teachings online, then you already have the foundational component in place. The next step is to find a tech-savvy volunteer with a heart for helping Internet users develop biblical communities. This can go far beyond forming chat groups or developing avatars. Internet campus groups can do everything together from praying to serving to evangelizing -- going together to other Web sites and then debriefing the experience online.
4) Life coaching -- Home Depot's slogan, "You can do it, we can help." is coming home to the local church. Pastors are learning how to shift away from fitting people into their programs and instead asking people how the church can serve their ministries. Reggie McNeal's book Get a Life!: It Is All about You shows a great example of what life coaching looks like. Bob Buford's many books, including Halftime, show what can happen when people with disposable time or income are set free for ministry by their churches.
Warren Bird heads the research division at Leadership Network (leadnet.org) and has co-authored 18 books, including Eleven Innovations in the Local Church and The Multi-Site Church Revolution.
D. Michael Lindsay: Social Changes Affecting Ministry
The most significant cultural shift that has occurred within a single generation in this country has been declining involvement in organizations and institutions. This is more important than changing demographics, urbanization, or political shifts. While Americans who came of age in the 1940s and 1950s -- the "Greatest Generation" -- dedicated much of their energy to strengthening civic groups, social clubs, and churches, subsequent generations have not followed suit.
And yet, younger Americans still care about civic life and the priorities of the church -- but they do church differently. They readily volunteer for short-tem missions projects. Through Facebook, MySpace, and other social networking Web sites, younger Americans have mobilized thousands of their friends for great causes -- including participating in AIDS relief for Africa, helping displaced hurricane victims, and ministering to the homeless in their communities.
Church leaders have to recognize these generational differences and calibrate their ministries accordingly. Senior adults today value institutional stability, long-running programs, and initiatives sponsored by established organizations. On the other hand, the current generation of young adults prize flexibility and responsiveness; they want programs that are nimble and can meet changing needs.
Fortunately, Christians have a history of being cultural entrepreneurs, of doing whatever they can to make a difference in the world around them. While their methods may be different, young and old alike appear to be as committed as ever to harnessing the resources at their disposal to minister to their generation.
D. Michael Lindsay is a sociologist at Rice University who studies leadership and culture. His award-winning book Faith in the Halls of Power: How Evangelicals Joined the American Elite is now available in paperback.
David Kinnaman: Post-Christian America
Most of the trends we monitor confirm this sobering conclusion: It's more difficult than ever to do ministry in American communities. Why? There are many factors, but perhaps most important is that Christianity is losing its mainstream status. It's becoming just one of many spiritual players rather than the dominant voice. Alan Hirsh and others have described it as the end of Christendom -- a big-sounding concept, but one that affects almost everything you encounter, from secularization to technology, from worldview to apologetics, from communication to the generation gap.
Now some have grossly over-stated the emerging post-Christian context, describing it as the death of evangelicalism. Others ignore the problem, hoping the discomfort will go away. What's worse, some leaders whip their congregations and constituencies into a frenzy that too often misses the point.
How can you strike the right posture and address the real needs of your community? First, come to a healthy conclusion about how a post-Christian world affects your church. This requires thinking and doing things differently to help your congregants learn and put their faith into action, which means expanding our collective sensibility about the world. Take more trips. Support innovative missionaries. Offer scholarships to students. Serve the community in new and unexpected ways. Nurture even deeper friendships with people who are not Christians. After all, the opportunities outweigh the challenges -- perhaps especially so in a changing world.
David Kinnaman is president of The Barna Group (barna.org) and author of Unchristian: What a New Generation Really Thinks About Christianity…and Why It Matters.
Brad Lomenick: Young Leader Trends
The biggest trend emerging among younger pastors and church leaders is collaboration. Not that other generations have chosen to avoid or not engage in collaborative efforts, but today's under-40 leaders are seeking and intentionally finding ways to work together, even in situations where it might be more convenient to work on their own. Obviously, the ease with which we engage in technology, social media, niche networks, and unique communication devices makes working together much easier than in the past. But it is still in stark contrast to other generations. As a general rule, young leaders are less concerned about who gets the credit and more concerned with the outcome and the greater good that results.
Boomers -- make sure to give your young church leaders the chance to engage in projects with other leaders in your community, and especially with leaders from other churches in your area.
Another major trend is the rise of the "free agent." Leaders are no longer looking at a career as a one church or one organization story. This phenomenon has taken the business community by storm over the last five to seven years, but it's now becoming more commonplace among younger church leaders. This is clearly evidenced by the reality that young leaders are more project-oriented, committed to tackling a project now and seeing immediate results, and less committed to the long-term building of an organization or personality-based church over 20, 30, or 40 years.
Boomers -- don't be afraid to allow your younger staff to lead projects and don't be overly concerned when they leave to tackle something new. Free agents seek new opportunities, and if you don't provide the environment that allows them to do this, they'll look elsewhere.
Brad Lomenick (bradlomenick.com) is executive director of Catalyst, a community of next generation leaders.
copyright © 2009 Group Publishing Inc.
